Tussell's bullish report on Kier published yesterday is subsequently backed up by positive company results 24 hours later and credited in the FT.

Extracts from Matthew Vincent's Opening Quote email, in the Financial Times.

“Is Kier the next Carillion? No, this is not blatant sensationalism...

No, it is a serious question posed by the serious-minded business data provider Tussell. It has observed that some of the same hedge funds that anticipated the collapse of government contractor Carillion are now raising their bets against its peer . . . Kier. So ahead of this morning’s full-year results from Kier, Tussell identified three key factors that should help the business:

1. Better spread of risk — Ie. Kier is not reliant on a small group of contracts, having won 112 since 2015 to Carillion’s 23;

2. Greater customer diversification — Kier serves 71 distinct public sector buyers, compared to Carillion’s 14;

3. Better visibility of future cash flow — 65 per cent of the value of Kier's current awards runs until 2022 or beyond, whereas Carillion’s were expiring.

So, do today’s results back this up? Yes, thankfully: it seems a growing order book, planned debt reduction of £20m-£40m a year and the ‘Future Proofing Kier’ strategy are making it look less like its doomed rival by the month, if not the minute." 

Read the full article on the Financial Times website. Read our full analysis of Kier vs. Carillion here.

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